In a market filled with noise and cautious optimism, global brokerage house Jefferies has come out with a clear and confident message: it is time to pay attention to four specific Indian stocks. The brokerage has issued ‘Buy’ ratings on ICICI Prudential Life Insurance, ICICI Lombard General Insurance, AWL Agri Business, and ITC Hotels. Each stock has shown strong growth potential and improving fundamentals, and Jefferies sees up to 27 percent upside from current levels. The selections span across life insurance, general insurance, consumer goods, and hospitality, suggesting a diversified approach to long-term investing.

Let us begin with ICICI Prudential Life Insurance. This private insurer may have reported a small year-on-year decline in its value of new business for the first quarter, but the fall was less than expected. More importantly, it outperformed Jefferies’ estimates. The improvement in profitability was driven by a change in product mix, with a shift from traditional ULIPs to more stable non-participating guaranteed products. There was also strong growth in the protection segment and an increase in average policy tenure. The only notable concern was a drop in the 13-month persistency ratio, which fell by over three percentage points. Still, Jefferies has raised its earnings forecast and now expects a 16 percent compound annual growth rate in value of new business through FY28. The stock is valued at 1.7 times September 2027 price to embedded value and is given a target price of 780 rupees, indicating a 16 percent upside.

Moving to general insurance, ICICI Lombard has also earned a Buy rating. The company posted a strong quarterly profit growth of 29 percent year-on-year, totaling 750 crore rupees. Though its overall premium growth was modest due to sluggish performance in the motor segment, the company managed to maintain stable underwriting ratios. Net earned premiums rose 14 percent, and core profitability remained solid. Jefferies acknowledged that pricing pressures from public sector competitors in the motor segment remain a concern but expects the company to deliver a 13 percent earnings growth and an 18 percent return on equity in FY26. With these expectations in mind, the target price has been raised to 2,300 rupees from 2,170, offering a 15 percent potential gain from current levels.

AWL Agri Business, a diversified player in the food and oil sector, may have seen volume pressures in the last quarter, but Jefferies believes in its recovery story. While both edible oil and food volumes were down, the company managed to maintain strong margins in its foods and industry essentials segments. This margin resilience helped absorb the hit from the weakness in the oils category, which was affected by import duty cuts. Jefferies has slightly trimmed its earnings forecasts but continues to believe in the long-term strategy of the company. Cost control measures and improving palm oil dynamics could provide tailwinds in upcoming quarters. With a revised target of 340 rupees, this stock offers the highest upside among the four, at 27 percent.

Rounding off the list is ITC Hotels. The hospitality arm of the ITC group has delivered a surprising 54 percent year-on-year increase in profit after tax in the first quarter. This growth was supported by better room rates, strong performance from its Sri Lankan property, and robust other income. Jefferies is optimistic about the company’s plan to expand to over 20,000 rooms by 2030 using an asset-light model. Additionally, the Sapphire Residences project in Colombo is expected to start contributing significantly by the second half of FY26. The brokerage has increased its EBITDA forecast by four percent following the recent quarterly beat and now expects an EBITDA growth of 15 percent and profit growth of 23 percent through FY28. The new target price is 270 rupees, implying an 18 percent upside.

Each of these four companies comes from a different industry, but they share key traits: stable or improving margins, a clear growth plan, and solid earnings momentum. Jefferies has taken a long-term view, backing fundamentals over short-term volatility. The recommendations reflect confidence in India’s consumption story, insurance penetration growth, and recovery in hospitality and agri-linked businesses.

For investors looking to rebalance their portfolios or seek new opportunities, these stocks offer a mix of defensiveness and growth. While risks like pricing pressure, demand fluctuations, and macroeconomic shifts remain, the upside potential and consistent performance make them worth watching closely.

 

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