The Indian equity markets continued their downward slide as the Nifty closed the week at 24,837, marking its fourth straight weekly loss. This fall of 0.53 percent may seem modest at first glance, but it carries greater technical significance. The Nifty has now slipped below its 50-day exponential moving average for the first time since early April, signaling a weakening trend. Adding to concerns, it also ended below a recent swing low of 24,882, indicating sustained bearish momentum.
The index has been forming a pattern of lower tops and lower bottoms, which is considered a classic sign of a downtrend in technical analysis. Many market indicators, including oscillators, are reflecting negative signals. Although the market appears oversold in some respects, there is no strong sign yet of a turnaround. Investors looking for a bounce will need to wait for a clear positive divergence or momentum signal before regaining confidence.
To understand where the Nifty might find some support, analysts often refer to Fibonacci retracement levels. The 23.6 percent retracement level from the recent high stands around 24,742, which could act as a near-term support. If the index breaks that level too, the next retracement support lies near 24,170. On the flip side, if the Nifty manages to close above 25,246, it could signal a potential reversal with a new higher swing high.
From a broader market perspective, Indian indices are currently underperforming their global counterparts, especially in the United States. Since April, the Nifty has gained just 14 percent from its lows. In comparison, the S&P 500 is up by 28 percent, and the Nasdaq has surged an impressive 38 percent. American markets have benefited from relatively mild trade policy shifts and better-than-expected corporate earnings. In fact, a large majority of reporting companies in the US have beaten earnings forecasts, helping sustain investor enthusiasm.
Meanwhile, all eyes are on the upcoming meeting of the US Federal Open Market Committee scheduled for July 29 and 30. Markets expect interest rates to remain unchanged for now, though there is speculation about rate cuts starting in September. The Federal Reserve’s actions will be closely watched, as any shift in tone or guidance can influence global capital flows and investor sentiment across markets, including India.
Back home, the monsoon season is progressing slightly above average, with overall rainfall recorded at about five percent higher than normal. However, there are still notable differences across regions. On the agricultural front, sowing activity has picked up, and acreage is higher compared to last year due to early rains, which could support rural demand in the months ahead.
India’s trade dynamics are also evolving. While global headlines continue to focus on tariff wars and new trade alliances, India is treading cautiously with a strategy rooted in long-term sustainability and domestic resilience. With a growing internal market and a skilled workforce, the country is gradually positioning itself for a broader role in the global economy. The market correction seen now reflects some immediate uncertainties, but long-term fundamentals remain in place.
For retail investors and market watchers, the coming days will be critical. Whether the Nifty finds support at upcoming retracement levels or breaks further will depend not just on technical charts but also on global cues, corporate earnings, and macroeconomic developments. Until then, caution is advised.
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